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BoJ Policy Speculation Preliminary Discussion in July Meeting, Natural Increase in Long-Term Yields Needed as Inflation Slips Further From 2% Target

While the clock ticks down to BoJ’s July 31st Monetary Policy Statement, where officials could be expected to debate policy changes to sustain, not tighten, their stimulus program, 10-Yr JGB continue rising.

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ECB Reiterates QE Termination by 2018 End, but Rates Likely to Remain Unchanged at Least Until Summer 2019

Euro recorded its largest weekly loss in 19 months after June 14 ECB news conference and, although EU President Mario Draghi reiterated an end of QE in December, he added that interest rates will be changed depending on what is the state of the convergence process and as long as “inflation remains aligned with ECB’s current expectations of a sustained adjustment path”.

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June Headline CPI Needs Good Numbers to Recover from Negative NFP

The Bureau of Labour Statistic’s Nonfarm Payroll report was published last week, just a few days after the US Independence Day and a rather noiseless week on the economic calendar.

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June NFP – Q3 Dollar Rally Suggests More than just a Good Employment Report

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfarm Payroll employment increased in May, reaching 223K, while Average Hourly Earnings rose to 0.3% (0.1% higher than expectations), and Unemployment Rate declined to an 18-year low at 3.8%.

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Unexpected strong earnings on Apple Stocks

European & Asian shares rose on Wednesday, helped by unexpected strong earnings updates especially from the technology sector where Apple exceeded weak expectations.

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April NFP – It’s Not Just About the Headline Number

March employment report released on April 6 provided markets with a downward surprise, a surprise that missed expectations by 85K, while the unemployment forecast also disappointed as economists had forecasted a 4.0% figure.

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Crude Oil Hits 3-Year High Breakout Will Have Traders Acting Soon!

Crude Oil prices surged to a high of $67.60 per barrel last week amid rising geopolitical risk, the highest level since 2014. Oil’s breakout for a third consecutive day could either take price to a new ranging territory, making the breakout quite significant or retreat back below within the former trading range.

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Market Alert: Is the Hong Kong's dollar peg against the US dollar at risk?

Over the past few days we have noticed that the Hong Kong Dollar has fallen to the weaker end of its permitted band, trading at 7.85 on three separate occasions!

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March NFP – Can the NFP “Frenzy” Last Any Longer?

Total Employment increased by 313K in February while Unemployment held firm at 4.1% for the fifth running month. Economists had expected a pick to 205K, a tad higher than January’s 200K, but to everyone’s surprise the NFP reinforced a positive momentum for the US economy, yet, action in the currency markets was not impressive as wage growth grew with a slower pace.

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FEBRUARY NFP – Trade Wars Ahead Add Pressure to DOLLAR, Employment Report Weighty

Last month BLS reported a 200K change in the number of employed people, picking up from December’s 160K (revised from 148K) and printing a higher figure than economists’ expectations as the US economy accelerates.

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January NFP – Fresh start to 2018 needed

The gains for December’s payrolls came out less than the median anticipated projection of 190K and also below the 2016 total payrolls yet above 2 million and the yearly expectations.

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Currency Outlook 2018 (YTD)

The US DOLLAR struggled to perform on the offensive for most of 2017 amid growing political, geo-political and environmental related risks, moving nearly 6.20% lower year-to-date (YTD).

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Central Banks to Set the Tone for 2018

With little to support the economic calendar, today markets are concentrated on a number of Central Bank meetings following this week, meetings likely to set the stage for 2018.

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RBA & RBNZ Rate Hike Likely To Impact The Housing Market

Based on economic and monetary analyses RBNZ decided to leave rates unchanged at 1.75% in line with the Policy Targets Agreement.

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A view on NFP report

Based on the the payroll headline figures for the month of September a somewhat different reaction was seen in the markets instead of a broadly weaker US Dollar.

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A view on October's interest rates

The Bank of Canada raised its interest rates by 25bp back in September 6th following a 25bp rate hike in July 12. The rate hike took Loonie 82 cents higher versus the Dollar while economists were expecting another raise in the upcoming October 25th economic event, rather than as early as July.

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Japan’s Abe Poised for a Big Victory According to Forecast

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a snap election back in September 25th, taking full advantage of a weak and disorganised opposition, while his approval ratings climbed higher, near 44%, on his hard stance against North Korea.

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German Elections

While polls show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party heading the German Election with a 16% lead over follower Martin Schulz’s Social Democrat (SPD) party amid a televised debate the latter “failed” ...

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Cryptocurrencies insider's report

The world of Cryptocurrencies has seen a massive interest over the past few years. The birth of Bitcoin in November 2008 was the spark of peer-to-peer electronic cash system, or simply put, digital cash.

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August NFP Special Report

A more important than usual report came out on the 4th of August as doubts over a rate hike increased following a slowdown in inflation. Along with the Fed’s approach to reducing the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, July’s job figures did matter the most to the central bank and investors.

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EURJPY Fresh Highs - The Rally That May Not Last Much Longer

Euro – Yenb> hit a fresh 17-Month high at 130.516 due to the latest sell-off in the Euro Bond market while BoJ is expected to hold its soft monetary policy unchanged as the introduction of Yield-Curve control in 2016 is far from improving inflation.

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What to expect from this months NFP?

A clearly “soft” report May’s NFP as consensus expectations was for a 185K increase in employment change, the actual data saw a fall to 138K, and the unemployment rate was little changed to 4.3%; both multiyear records.

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Crude Oil Price - The short

Oil has been in the spotlight over the past few weeks, not to say since the beginning of 2017, where the black gold struck a staggering $55.72 per barrel.

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What is the so called FOMC and what is its role?

The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. The committee's primary responsibility is to undertake action to influence the supply and cost of money.

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London's War On Terror Sends Markets Plummeting

Police in London have reinforced security across the River Thames following the 3rd ISIS attack in just 3 months. 7 have been pronounced dead and 21 critically injured...

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April’s NFP consensus expectation was for a 194.000 increase in employment change. EUSUSD reacted in a positive manner, giving the opportunity...

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F.B.I Director James Comey firing last week will stay in history. President Donald Trump described the sacking took place over Comey’s handling of the investigation of the “Hillary Clinton Email Scandal”.

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Macron wins French Presidential Elections

Emmanuel Macron has won the 2017 Elections and will be inaugurated as the youngest ever President of France, beating right-wing and anti-EU Marine Le Pen by a large margin.

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French Elections: The Vote That Could Devastate The EURO

On 23 April 2017, the French electorate will vote for a new President. Whilst market pundits are split on who is likely to take the Presidential title, all agree that the vote outcome may mean bad news for the European Union and for the Euro.

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Politics, not economics, weighing on EUR

The Eurozone’s economics would seem to suggest a stronger currency, but instead the continent’s political problems are weighing the single currency down.

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